This post is a transcript of a discussion between Paul Christiano, Ajeya Cotra, and Eliezer Yudkowsky on AGI forecasting, following up on Paul and Eliezer's "Takeoff Speeds" discussion.

This was originally posted on 25th Nov 2021.

https://www.lesswrong.com/s/n945eovrA3oDueqtq/p/7MCqRnZzvszsxgtJi